Why bet on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in Sunday’s Quaker State 400
NASCAR returns to the newly set up Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Quaker State 400 on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, US).
Drafting was the name of the game at Atlanta’s first race, but it had a 1.5-mile intermediate track racing element, according to the drivers.
The winner in March, William Byron, used a superspeedway car with an intermediate configuration.
Given that Byron not only won the race but led 111 of the 325 laps, other teams might end up copying that. This could alter the dynamics of the cars driving ahead.
With that in mind, there is one driver who stands out as an excellent midweek value bet – regardless of how things may or may not change from that first race.
NASCAR at Atlanta’s Choice
*Quote as of Wednesday afternoon
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has had two wins in his career drawing tracks.
Yes, both have come to the biggest drafting tracks — Daytona and Talladega — and they performed in 2017, but that +5000 line at Caesars is still too long for Stenhouse.
For starters, Stenhouse has continued to produce strong results when writing leads throughout his career. He has three other top-five finishes, but more importantly, he has reached the front quite often.
Since the 2017 season, when Stenhouse really figured out how to race on drafting tracks, he’s led an average of 5.9% of the laps he’s completed per race. Although it may not seem like much, he is the eighth among the drivers taking part in this Sunday’s race.
While all but one of those 23 starts were at Daytona or Talladega, it remains the only previous race in Atlanta to watch.
In that race, Stenhouse led 22 of the 200 laps he ran before crashing with a flat tire. This equates to an 11% rate of laps led.
Throughout his career, Stenhouse has won two of his 40 drawing-track starts, including 2 of 23 since 2017, with several other winning opportunities.
It hurts not having a teammate to help him win, but Stenhouse has proven he can push through regardless.
The bet: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +5000 to win | Bet on: +3500
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