Colgate-Palmolive share unlikely to continue rally next month
Colgate-Palmolive broth (NYSE: CL) is up 13% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just under 5%. If you also look at how the last five and ten days have evolved, the stock has returned 2.6% and 2.2%, beating the market every time. Colgate had reported mixed earnings for the third quarter of 2021, but revenue rose to $ 4.41 billion, up from $ 4.15 billion in the third quarter of 2020. However, the increase in COGS and SG&A expenses caused operating income to fall from $ 1.02 billion in Q3 ’20 to $ 967 million in Q3 ’21. This led to a drop in EPS from $ 0.81 to $ 0.75 during this period. The stock fell almost 3% in the month after the results were announced, but has managed to rebound 13% since.
Now, is CL stock ready to continue its rally or can we expect a pullback? We believe there is less than a 10% chance that the CL stock will rise in the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of stock price trends. action over the past ten years. See our analysis on CL Stock Rise Chance. For more details on CL historical returns and comparison with peers, see Return of Colgate-Palmolive shares.
21 days: CL 13%, vs S & P500 4.5%; Outperformed market
(0% probability event; 0% probability of increase over the next 21 days)
- CL action increased by 13% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market rise (S & P500) of 4.5%
- A change of 13% or more in twenty-one trading days is a near 0% probability event, which has occurred 7 times out of 2,515 in the past 10 years
- Of these 7 cases, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days at 0 times.
- This indicates a 0% probability that the stock will rise over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten days: CL 2.2%, vs S & P500 1.2%; Outperformed market
(27% probability event; 53% probability of increasing over the next 10 days)
- CL action increased by 2.2% in the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a wider market rise (S & P500) of 1.2%
- A change of 2.2% or more over ten trading days is a 27% probability event, which has occurred 680 out of 2,515 times in the past 10 years
- Of these 680 cases, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days 363 times
- This indicates a 53% chance that the stock will rise over the next ten trading days
Five days: CL 2.6%, vs. S & P500 1.8%; Outperformed market
(7% probability event; 53% probability of increase in the next five days)
- CL action increased by 2.6% over a five day trading period ending 12/30/2021, versus the wider market rise (S & P500) of 1.8%
- A change of 2.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 7% probability event, which has occurred 183 times out of 2,515 in the past ten years
- Of those 183 cases, the stock saw a positive movement over the next five trading days on 97 occasions.
- This indicates a 53% chance that the stock will rise in the next five trading days
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